Kuva Margit Mannila
Jotenkin tässä on tullut viime aikoina jälleen mieleeni tämä The Black Swan-effekti.
Kysymys on siis tapahtumista, joita kukaan ei kykene ennustamaan, mutta
tapahtuma sitten tullessaan muuttaa jotakin pysyvästi. Wikipediassa
todetaan tästä aiheesta näin: "The black swan theory or theory of black
swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a
surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized
after the fact with the benefit of hindsight." (Ks. myös Investopediasta. Siellä kerrotaan, että termi on Nassim Nicholas Talebin (a finance professor and former Wall Street trader) lanseeraama. Voit katsoa Nassim Nicholas Talebin oman selityksen tästä linkistä.
Source: http://image.slidesharecdn.com/statistics-141025180405-conversion-gate01/95/statistics-13-638.jpg?cb=1414260496
Source: http://image.slidesharecdn.com/statistics-141025180405-conversion-gate01/95/statistics-13-638.jpg?cb=1414260496
Kuvan lähde http://www.12manage.com/images/picture_taleb_domain_payoff_model.gif
http://www.12manage.com/description_taleb_black_swan.html
Examples
of World Wide "Black Swan events" would be 9/11, the collapse of
Russia and Germany or the invention of the Internet and present the migrants crisis. I think, that we can delivire the Black Swan events as earth/state/local as well as our personal level episodes.
Source: http://www.strategiccomputing.ie/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/Balance-of-Power2.png
Black Swans and Large Software Procurement Projects
Source: http://www.strategiccomputing.ie/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/Balance-of-Power2.png
Black Swans and Large Software Procurement Projects
Mitä mustia joutsenia sinä tunnistat?
Lähde http://www.continuitycentral.com/images/blackswanevents.gif
http://www.continuitycentral.com/feature0778.html
Lähteitä
Black Swan (21.10.2015).
Correra, C.C. (2012) Black swan theory:We know absolutely nothing & the finding of atypical events optimization-method. (21.10.2015)
Definition of black swan theory. (21.10.2015).
Definition of the black swan. Financial Times. (21.10.2015).
The Balck Swan Effect (Book) (21.10.2015).
The Balck Swan Effect. (Book by Talem Nasib) (15.3.2016).
The Balck Swan Effect. (Book by Talem Nasib) (15.3.2016).
Taleb, N. The Black Swan Theory. Wikipedia. (21.10.2015).
Not so rare: was the crisis a black swan event?
The Short View: Black Swan
What is a black swan? (21.10.2015).
Source: http://blackswanevents.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/Idea.png (21.10.2015)
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