Entrepreneurs are forecasters?

“Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future.”
–Nils Bohr, Nobel laureate in Physics

 Source:  http://www.cimms.ou.edu/~doswell/advfcstg/Sillybus01.GIF

How to forecast revenue and growth? (by A. Advani). Maybe you know a story about Mike Smith (Decca). His very famous words are: "We don't like their sound. Groups of guitars are on the way out. Smith was working as recording co. executive at Decca on 1962. And from who he said this was called the Beatles.

Neither J.K. Rowling's story was not very easy. There were many publisher who didn't believe on her work. On Wikipedia they write about the process like that: "

Harry Potter

"The Elephant House" – one of the cafés in Edinburgh in which Rowling wrote the first Harry Potter novel.[61]
In 1995, Rowling finished her manuscript for Harry Potter and the Philosopher's Stone on an old manual typewriter.[62] Upon the enthusiastic response of Bryony Evens, a reader who had been asked to review the book's first three chapters, the Fulham-based Christopher Little Literary Agents agreed to represent Rowling in her quest for a publisher. The book was submitted to twelve publishing houses, all of which rejected the manuscript.[27] A year later she was finally given the green light (and a £1500 advance) by editor Barry Cunningham from Bloomsbury, a publishing house in London.[27][63] The decision to publish Rowling's book apparently owes much to Alice Newton, the eight-year-old daughter of Bloomsbury's chairman, who was given the first chapter to review by her father and immediately demanded the next.[64] Although Bloomsbury agreed to publish the book, Cunningham says that he advised Rowling to get a day job, since she had little chance of making money in children's books.[65] Soon after, in 1997, Rowling received an £8000 grant from the Scottish Arts Council to enable her to continue writing.[66]"

Indeed forecasting is not a piece of cake.

Some helpful articles

2/3 some simple forecasting methods 

4 important methods of forecasting techniques

A forecast calculation examples

Chamebers , J. C., Mullick, S.K.  & Smith,  D.D. (1971)  How to choose the right forecasting technique. Harvard Business Review.

Choosing the right forecasting technique

Elliot, T. Three Methods of Sales Forecasting

Financial forecasting methods

Forecasting (course + learning objectives)

Forecasting methods and formulas with excel

My secret weapon to understanding cash flow  (A good article)

The basics of business forecasting

Voster. C. (2012). Implementing a Forecasting Model

Warnelid, R. (2011). Forecasting techniques and financial modelling.

Young, R. What are four primary forecasting techniques?

Definition of qualitative forecasting techniques is "Estimating method that relies on expert human judgment combined with a rating scale, instead of on hard (measurable and verifiable) data."

Source: http://lh4.ggpht.com/-vjeu5TzeOwk/UeCVpF-rMuI/AAAAAAAALeU/5XW6f2c-CqA/triple-bottom-line_thumb%25255B8%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800
Link to the text: http://blog.startupprofessionals.com/2013/07/the-bar-keeps-going-up-for-venerable.html


Source: http://gbr.pepperdine.edu/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/approach.gif

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Source: http://ihsinc.files.wordpress.com/2012/04/healthcare-forecasting-models.jpg

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Source: http://article.sapub.org/image/10.5923.j.mm.20130302.09_003.gif

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