“Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future.”
–Nils Bohr, Nobel laureate in Physics
–Nils Bohr, Nobel laureate in Physics
Source: http://www.cimms.ou.edu/~doswell/advfcstg/Sillybus01.GIF
How to forecast revenue and growth? (by A. Advani). Maybe you know a story about Mike Smith (Decca). His very famous words are: "We don't like their sound. Groups of guitars are on the way out. Smith was working as recording co. executive at Decca on 1962. And from who he said this was called the Beatles.
Neither J.K. Rowling's story was not very easy. There were many publisher who didn't believe on her work. On Wikipedia they write about the process like that: "
Harry Potter
Main article: Harry Potter
In 1995, Rowling finished her manuscript for Harry Potter and the Philosopher's Stone on an old manual typewriter.[62]
Upon the enthusiastic response of Bryony Evens, a reader who had been
asked to review the book's first three chapters, the Fulham-based Christopher Little Literary Agents
agreed to represent Rowling in her quest for a publisher. The book was
submitted to twelve publishing houses, all of which rejected the
manuscript.[27] A year later she was finally given the green light (and a £1500 advance) by editor Barry Cunningham from Bloomsbury, a publishing house in London.[27][63]
The decision to publish Rowling's book apparently owes much to Alice
Newton, the eight-year-old daughter of Bloomsbury's chairman, who was
given the first chapter to review by her father and immediately demanded
the next.[64]
Although Bloomsbury agreed to publish the book, Cunningham says that he
advised Rowling to get a day job, since she had little chance of making
money in children's books.[65] Soon after, in 1997, Rowling received an £8000 grant from the Scottish Arts Council to enable her to continue writing.[66]"
WikipediaIndeed forecasting is not a piece of cake.
Some helpful articles
2/3 some simple forecasting methods
4 important methods of forecasting techniques
A forecast calculation examples
Chamebers , J. C., Mullick, S.K. & Smith, D.D. (1971) How to choose the right forecasting technique. Harvard Business Review.
Choosing the right forecasting technique
Elliot, T. Three Methods of Sales Forecasting
Financial forecasting methods
Forecasting (course + learning objectives)
Forecasting methods and formulas with excel
My secret weapon to understanding cash flow (A good article)
The basics of business forecasting
Voster. C. (2012). Implementing a Forecasting Model
Warnelid, R. (2011). Forecasting techniques and financial modelling.
Young, R. What are four primary forecasting techniques?
Definition of qualitative forecasting techniques is "Estimating method that relies on expert human judgment combined with a rating scale, instead of on hard (measurable and verifiable) data."
Source: http://lh4.ggpht.com/-vjeu5TzeOwk/UeCVpF-rMuI/AAAAAAAALeU/5XW6f2c-CqA/triple-bottom-line_thumb%25255B8%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800
Link to the text: http://blog.startupprofessionals.com/2013/07/the-bar-keeps-going-up-for-venerable.html
Source: http://gbr.pepperdine.edu/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/approach.gif
Read also article written by Owen D. Hall: Artificial intelligence techniques enhance business forecasts
Article by Gustav Andro (2012) Healthcare forecasting 2.0
Source: http://article.sapub.org/image/10.5923.j.mm.20130302.09_003.gif
Read the article: http://article.sapub.org/10.5923.j.mm.20130302.09.html
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